Asia Bias Incidents by the Numbers and the Baader-Meinhof Phenomenon
Background: there are 1500 assaults in NYC monthly. Among violent victimizations, 41% occur between individuals of different races. Asians are ~14% of the NYC population. We should expect 240 assaults on Asians a month, and at least 100 of those should be committed by non-Asians.
The 2018 hate crime report report indicates that Asians before coronavirus were victimized at slightly less than their population at 9.1%. Whites were more victimized, at 41% of victims with a population of 46%.
The 2020 hate crime statistics now have their own page. There were 140 hate crime arrestees, 20 of which were anti-Asian for 14%. Two of these were white perpetrators. These are only arrestees, and it’s possible for arrestees to be involved in more than one incident, and this may be the case as some sites report up to 27 cases.
The overall assault numbers of 2020 do not indicate a rise in victimization of Asians. Asians, while 14% of the population, were 7.7% of assault victims and 5.7% of suspects. In 2019 they were 7.7% of victims of assault. This is the same number, where a 0.1% rise would indicate a differential of 20. There were not even 0.1% more, not even 20 more felonious assaults of Asians in 2020 than 2019. This is out of a total of 20,000 yearly assaults. Assaults are a good metric to look at because it’s the most common form of physical hate crime, and merely calling someone a slur is too insignificant (not to mention common among vagrants!) to consider cataloging.
The above is relevant to assaults and hate crime arrestees, but not reported cases. Reported cases are difficult to compare because popular sentiment influences how people respond to events. One UFO sighting leads to more UFO sightings. The Baader-Meinhof phenomenon means that noticing a pattern (even fictitious) increases recognition of the pattern into the future. Anti-Asian incidents have been in the public conscience since 2020 and even more since 2021. We are already seeing square cases fit into circular patterns, such as the response to the Asian Spa shooting, which will only reinforce recognition of the pattern.
 Because Asians commit only 20% of assaults in comparison to their population numbers, we should expect many more Asian victimizations by non-Asian assailants. It probably doesn’t line up exactly like this but it may be as high as 212 out of 240 Asian victimizations perpetrated by non-Asians.
 How could this be? Well, put yourself in the mind of someone who is willing to assault a stranger. You obviously don’t care about manners and will denigrate them however you can, by remarking on their most obvious features. Hence: “Retard”, “Midget”, “Asian”, “Old ass”, “shortie”, “ugly ass”, F-slur, and so on. This does not indicate bias as much as “I am going to insult you any way I can.” This is a universal phenomenon that even children engage in. A criminal assaulting an Asian while making anti-Asian slurs does not indicate that they would not otherwise assault someone using other non-racial slurs.